MAROKO133 Hot crypto: Oil Stocks Push Higher Even as War Premium Fades Hari Ini

📌 MAROKO133 Update crypto: Oil Stocks Push Higher Even as War Premium Fades Wajib

Oil stocks have held their bids even as the Iran war premium drains from crude. It is a pattern that suggests something deeper than headlines is holding them up.

Options positioning on the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) has become more bullish since the April 22 ceasefire extension, not less so. 3 reasons explain what traders are actually pricing in.

Why Options Traders Are Betting on Oil Even as the War Premium Deflates

The bullish signal in oil stocks shows up clearest in options positioning on the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO). It is an ETF that tracks Brent crude futures.

On March 25, as Brent traded above $105 at the peak of the Iran conflict, the BNO open interest put-call ratio sat at 0.24, meaning roughly four call options were open for every put. That was war-premium positioning, and expected.

Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here.

Then came the ceasefire extension on April 22. Much of the war risk had been priced out. If traders had been betting only on the Hormuz shock, the ratio should have drifted higher as those bets were closed.

Instead, it moved the other way. The open interest ratio dropped to 0.17, close to six calls open for every put. Daily activity tightened even more, with the volume ratio at 0.05.

Tighter bullish positioning after the war scare deflating is not how hedges behave. These traders are renewing their bets and paying up to do so, with option prices running in the top 12% of their historical levels.

That level of conviction, while the biggest short-term driver fades, says the bet is on something that lasts longer than a headline. 3 reasons explain why the options flow has stayed firm, and each line up behind a different oil stock.

Institutional Money is Flowing into ExxonMobil

The BNO signal was clearly visible in ExxonMobil (XOM).

As the war premium started to fade on April 17 with the first ceasefire announcement, XOM pulled back from its early April peak to its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend line that tracks the average price of the last 100 days. The 100-day line held as support, and the stock bounced back above $149 as of April 23.

Buying volume has stayed steady through the drop and recovery, without the heavy selling of a panic exit or the rush of a speculative spike. That pattern looks like steady accumulation.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that tracks whether big institutional money is flowing into or out of a stock, confirms the read.

Between April 8 and April 20, XOM slid lower while CMF moved higher, a classic sign that professional buyers were stepping in on weakness.

Wall Street sees the same thing. On April 10, right as the Iran de-escalation was gaining traction and the Hormuz premium was already starting to fade, TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman reiterated his Buy rating on XOM with only a small trim from $175 to $172.

The reason behind that call is simple. ExxonMobil paid its shareholders $37.2 billion in 2025, $17.2 billion in dividends, and another $20 billion in share buybacks.

Management has committed to buying back another $20 billion this year. When a company returns cash at that pace, its stock has a natural floor even as oil prices fluctuate.

A clean reclaim of $150 and push through $155, the first Fibonacci level traders are watching, opens a move toward $163.

However, a break below $141 would snap the 100-day EMA and expose $131 and $114 as deeper support zones.

Valero Stock Is Set Up Like February 3

The same war-premium deflation also tested Valero Energy (VLO), a US company whose only business is turning crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

VLO pulled back from its early April peak, then quickly climbed back above its 50-day EMA and is now working to break above the 20-day EMA at $235.

Buying volume has been light through the rebound. To confirm the next leg, VLO needs a clean break above the 20-day EMA with strong volume behind it. The last time VLO did exactly that was on February 3, and since then the stock has rallied 41.65%. The broader uptrend since mid-December remains intact, with price holding above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs.

The fundamental case does not need crude to spike. Refiners make money on the gap between what they pay for crude oil and what they sell for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. That gap is called a crack spread.

Right now, those spreads are at all-time highs.

According to the International Energy Agency’s April 2026 Oil Market Report, global refineries will process 1 million fewer barrels per day in 2026, which keeps fuel markets tight even as crude prices settle.

Goldman Sachs reinforced the setup on April 20</…

🔗 Sumber: www.beincrypto.com

📌 MAROKO133 Breaking crypto: Can 2 Weeks of XRP ETF Buying Delay the 18% Price Bre

XRP (XRP) price is setting up for an 18.81% breakdown on the 8-hour chart, but weakening sell-side volume and steady ETF inflows are delaying the move.

The signal comes from a hidden bearish divergence that flashed during the bearish pattern formation, now compounded by long-term holder capitulation. However, a mismatch between retail holders and institutional buyers is keeping the price propped up near key resistance.

Hidden Bearish Divergence Sets the Stage for Downtrend Resumption

XRP (XRP) price traded at $1.41 on April 23, slightly down on the 8-hour timeframe and broadly flat across weekly and monthly windows. The shorter timeframe reveals what the longer ones mask.

Between March 23 and April 22, price made a minor lower high while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, which made a higher high. In a broader downtrend, this setup is a hidden bearish divergence. It signals that the corrective bounce is losing momentum even as price pushes higher, suggesting the downtrend is set to resume.

The divergence appeared as XRP sits inside a head-and-shoulders structure, a bearish reversal pattern. The right shoulder topped on April 17. However, the timing of the breakdown depends on whether the selling pressure has enough strength to drive the move immediately, which the next chart addresses.

Sell-side pressure has been fading exactly when the bearish structure needs it most. Between April 12 and April 23, the red volume bars on the 8-hour chart trended lower as XRP price trended higher.

The fading XRP volume on the sell side shows the pullback could be running out of steam yet. The implication is a delayed breakdown rather than an invalidated one. The pattern stays intact, but the 18.81% measured move will have to wait for sell pressure to re-accelerate.

This creates a near-term stalemate. The structural case and momentum divergence both say breakdown, but the volume tape says not right now. Whether hodler and institutional flows confirm or override the volume signal determines the next move.

Long-Term Hodlers Capitulate as ETFs Keep Buying

On-chain data shows a split between XRP hodlers and institutional buyers. According to Glassnode, the hodler net position change sat at 260,176,113 XRP on April 12. By April 22, it had dropped to 149,050,480 XRP. That is a decline of roughly 42.7% in ten days, reflecting long-term holders (155 days or more) trimming positions.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The hodler distribution started before the right shoulder formed on April 17. The timing suggests long-term holders were already losing confidence in the bounce.

However, institutional buyers saw it differently. US spot XRP ETF products have logged net inflows on 8 of the last 9 trading days, a run that spans nearly two weeks since April 10.

The only exception was a flat session on April 21 with zero net flow, meaning there were no outflows during the entire window. The data suggests steady accumulation through the same period hodlers were distributing. April 17 alone saw $13.74 million in inflows, followed by $3 million on April 20 and $2.42 million on April 22.

The disjoint matters. Retail long-term holders are betting on the pattern breakdown, while institutional flow is betting the bounce extends. The XRP price chart will eventually vindicate one side over the other.

XRP Price Levels That Resolve the Tension

The XRP price chart lays out the full decision zone. XRP has already lost the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $1.43, which served as the immediate bounce cap. Below it, the 0.382 Fib at $1.38 and the 0.5 Fib at $1.34 are the first downside tests.

The key decision level sits at $1.30, the 0.618 Fib. A daily close below this level clears the path toward $1.25 (0.786 Fib) and triggers the measured move projection. The measured move from the right shoulder points to $1.18 initially, with extension to $1.01, representing an 18.81% decline from the breakdown point.

For invalidation, XRP needs to reclaim the right shoulder cap at $1.50 on the 8-hour close. A move above $1.60, the head peak, would fully invalidate the bearish structure and align with the ETF thesis.

The $1.30 level separates a shallow pullback supported by fading sell pressure and ETF demand from a deeper 18.81% flush toward $1.01 if hodler capitulation spreads.

The post Can 2 Weeks of XRP ETF Buying Delay the 18% Price Breakdown? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

🔗 Sumber: www.beincrypto.com