MAROKO133 Hot crypto: Arthur Hayes Says Iran Conflict Could Trigger Fed Easing, Boost Bitc

📌 MAROKO133 Hot crypto: Arthur Hayes Says Iran Conflict Could Trigger Fed Easing,

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a new essay on March 2 arguing that prolonged US military engagement with Iran would increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and money printing, ultimately driving Bitcoin higher.

His thesis rests on a four-decade pattern: every major US military campaign in the Middle East has been followed by Fed easing, and he expects Iran to be no different.

War and the Fed: A Recurring Pattern

In “iOS Warfare,” Hayes presented a historical analysis linking US military operations in the Middle East to subsequent monetary easing by the Fed. He noted that every US president since 1985 has launched missile strikes or full-scale wars against Middle Eastern countries, and that the Fed consistently lowered interest rates in the aftermath.

Hayes cited three precedents. During the 1990 Gulf War under President George H.W. Bush, the Fed held rates steady at its first post-war meeting but signaled easing was likely if the conflict dragged on. The central bank cut rates at its November and December 1990 meetings, even as oil-driven inflation persisted.

After the September 11 attacks in 2001, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed through an emergency 50-basis-point rate cut, citing downward pressure on asset prices and the need to restore economic confidence. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that followed were accompanied by an extended easing cycle.

Under President Obama’s 2009 troop surge in Afghanistan, rates were already at zero, and quantitative easing was underway, leaving no further room for cuts.

Turning to the present, Hayes framed Trump’s apparent endorsement of regime change in Iran as following the same pattern. He argued that Iranian regime change has been a bipartisan objective among US policymakers since 1979, giving the Fed political cover to ease monetary policy to finance the effort.

Hayes supported his argument with a chart showing that the percentage of the federal budget allocated to the Department of Veterans Affairs rose twice as fast as aggregate federal spending since 1985, alongside declining effective Fed Funds Rates following major military engagements.

Wait for the Cut

Despite his bullish long-term outlook, Hayes advised caution in the near term. He recommended investors wait for the Fed to actually cut rates or begin printing money before adding exposure to Bitcoin and select altcoins.

“We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking,” Hayes wrote. “The prudent action is to wait and see.”

Bitcoin was trading around $66,200 at the time of publication, down nearly 30% year-over-year and roughly 47% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025. The coin has fallen for five consecutive months, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stuck in extreme fear territory.

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🔗 Sumber: www.beincrypto.com

📌 MAROKO133 Breaking crypto: US Judge Lets Binance Unregistered Token Class Action

A federal judge in Manhattan has refused Binance’s bid to move a long-running securities lawsuit into private arbitration, allowing a class action alleging the exchange sold unregistered digital tokens to US investors to continue in court.

In a Thursday opinion, US District Judge Andrew L. Carter Jr. ruled that Binance did not properly notify users when it revised its Terms of Use in February 2019 to include an arbitration clause and a class-action restriction.

The plaintiffs, which are customers from California, Nevada and Texas, opened their accounts between September 2017 and April 2018, before those provisions existed.

Appeals Court Revives Binance Securities Case

The lawsuit is part of a wave of cases filed in April 2020 against crypto exchanges and token issuers during heightened scrutiny of token sales.

A lower court dismissed the complaint in 2022, but the Second Circuit revived it in 2024, concluding that US securities laws could apply to Binance even though the exchange lacked a formal domestic headquarters.

The Supreme Court declined to review that decision in early 2025.

Binance argued its updated 2019 terms governed the relationship with users. Judge Carter disagreed, stating that simply posting revised terms online was insufficient notice.

The court noted that customers had no duty to routinely check whether a company unilaterally altered contractual language.

Even if users later learned of the arbitration clause during the litigation, the court said it could not apply retroactively.

Under California contract law, a unilateral change that does not clearly address earlier claims cannot be used to limit disputes tied to past conduct.

The exchange also failed to enforce its class-action waiver. Although the heading referenced such a waiver, the body of the agreement never defined its scope.

The judge described the language as unclear and interpreted the standardized contract against Binance, which drafted the document.

Plaintiffs previously narrowed the case by dropping claims tied to activity after February 2019, leaving allegations focused on earlier token sales.

The decision clears a major procedural barrier and allows the case to move toward substantive arguments over whether certain listed tokens qualify as securities.

US Senators Urge Probe Into Binance Over Sanctions and AML Concerns

The ruling arrives as Binance faces renewed political scrutiny in Washington. A group of 11 US senators recently asked federal authorities to review whether the exchange complies with sanctions and anti-money-laundering requirements.

Lawmakers cited reports alleging roughly $1.7 billion in digital assets moved through the platform to Iranian-linked entities and raised concerns about possible sanctions evasion through newer payment products.

Separately, Senator Richard Blumenthal launched a congressional inquiry seeking records on the company’s compliance controls.

Binance has rejected the accusations, saying it reports suspicious activity and bars Iranian users from its platform.

The company also disputed media reports that it handled Iran-related transfers and denied claims it dismissed employees who flagged them.

The Securities and Exchange Commission moved to drop its own enforcement action against Binance last year, but the private lawsuit remains active.

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🔗 Sumber: cryptonews.com